A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."